Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a ceremony for the handover of new vehicles to the gendarmerie and police forces in Istanbul, Turkey, Nov. 28, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Murad Sezer
With Israel and Greece moving toward increasingly close military cooperation, Turkey is preparing for scenarios ranging from escalating confrontation to outright war, as Ankara assesses the partnership’s growing strategic implications and its potential to dramatically reshape the balance of power in the region, according to an official Turkish government document.
Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said in a letter to a lawmaker in the country’s parliament dated Aug. 10 that preparations for “possible crisis, tension, and war” in the surrounding region are continuing in close coordination among all relevant state institutions.
The letter was first reported by Nordic Monitor, a news site run by the Stockholm-based Nordic Research and Monitoring Network.
In a striking shift in Ankara’s strategic planning, Güler linked Turkey’s preparations for a potential war to growing concerns over Greece’s expanding military ties with Israel, which Turkish officials are closely watching as a challenge to the country’s security and interests in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean.
Even without identifying specific agencies or resources, Güler’s language suggests that the preparations extend beyond the military, with multiple state institutions involved in planning for a potentially broad national response to what Ankara appears to view as an increasingly challenging security environment.
The escalation in Ankara’s rhetoric comes amid growing Turkish concern over Greece’s rapid military modernization, including its acquisition of Israeli weapons and air defense systems.
In recent years, Israel and Greece have significantly expanded their defense cooperation through joint military exercises, training, defense technology, and industrial partnerships, with Turkish officials warning that the deepening ties warrant close scrutiny as Ankara assesses their potential impact on its security and regional interests.
According to Güler, Turkey continuously monitors Greek activities in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean that, according to Turkish officials, violate the country’s “rights, interests, and concerns” as well as international law, and will swiftly take whatever steps it deems necessary in response.
At the same time, Turkey is rapidly expanding its naval capabilities, with 47 warships under construction as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushes to transform the country into a major regional maritime power — a buildup that is drawing close attention from both Israeli and Greek officials.
In his letter, Güler also noted that shifting dynamics in Turkey’s neighborhood could create new opportunities to advance Ankara’s national interests, though he offered no details on what those opportunities might involve.
On Wednesday, Erdoğan said Turkey must remain strong and united in the face of mounting challenges in the region, warning that Ankara would not be swayed from its course by outside provocations.
“When necessary, we can put everything else aside. But when it comes to our homeland and the future of our state and nation, we bow to no one,” the Turkish leader said in a statement. “In this region, we have no choice but to remain strong, united, and standing together.”
“Those who believe they can halt the progress of Turkey and the Turkish nation through provocations and schemes will be disappointed,” he continued. “We will not change our course or be diverted by the provocations of others.”
Earlier this year, Israel and Greece signed a defense cooperation agreement spanning counter-drone and underwater systems, cyber threats, joint exercises, research, and defense technology, with officials describing the growing partnership as part of a wider Greece-Cyprus-Israel-US security network aimed at strengthening their position in the eastern Mediterranean.
The deepening Jerusalem-Athens defense partnership has led to major arms deals, including a roughly $750 million agreement signed in June for Elbit Systems’ PULS precision rocket artillery system. At the time, Israeli officials described the agreement as a milestone, saying the strategic security partnership between the two countries had reached its “highest point.”
Then, last month, Greece approved the acquisition of an Israeli multilayered air defense system worth up to roughly $4.1 billion, which will form the backbone of its “Achilles Shield” and integrate Israeli radar and missile systems designed to counter ballistic missiles, aircraft, and drones.
All of these acquisitions are part of the Greek government’s broader $32 billion military modernization program through 2036, which will also include up to 40 US-made F-35 fighter jets, new frigates, drones, and other advanced weapons systems.
Turkish officials have repeatedly accused Greece of violating agreements governing the demilitarization of Aegean islands. Athens, however, has dismissed the allegations as unfounded, arguing that its military buildup is driven by legitimate self-defense needs and growing regional instability, as well as what it views as persistent threats from Turkey.
Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis has even warned Turkey that the era of what he called Greece’s “passive diplomatic stagnation” is over, saying Athens is “fully prepared for any scenario” while continuing to pursue peace.
“Any attempt to violate our sovereign rights will be met with every means at our disposal,” Gerapetritis said in a statement. “We will do whatever is necessary. We will respond to provocations, and we will respond from a position of strength.”
For Turkey, the growing Greek-Israeli military partnership is transforming the Aegean dispute into part of a much broader regional security realignment, as Israeli weapons, technology, and strategic cooperation become increasingly embedded in Greece’s military posture while the Turkish-Israeli rivalry intensifies from the eastern Mediterranean to Syria.
According to a recent report by Greek media outlet Pro News, Israel may be even considering scenarios in which a potential confrontation with Turkey could spill into the eastern Mediterranean and involve Cyprus. The report alleges that Israel is weighing possible strikes against Turkish military targets in northern Cyprus if Jerusalem determines that Ankara’s military presence on the island poses a threat to the country’s interests.
Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and Turkey have continued to escalate, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week lambasting Erdogan as an “antisemitic dictator” after Turkey said it would seek an international arrest warrant for the Israeli leader.
The latest developments further escalated already high tensions between the two countries following Israel’s strike on a Syrian airbase over concerns regarding the potential deployment of Turkish troops there.
“Erdogan is an antisemitic dictator who has massacred Kurds, harbors Hamas terrorists, occupies half of Cyprus, and jails record numbers of journalists and politicians who oppose him,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. “He now seeks to extend his aggression against Israel into Syria. Israel will not tolerate it.”
