Greek epics, gory obsessions and awkward invites: where does this year’s Oscars race stand?

Reporting from fall film festivals used to be a more streamlined process – what’s good, what’s bad, what’s being sold, what has Oscars chances – but with each year, the season arrives with larger, more existential questions.

The 2025 run, from Venice to Telluride to Toronto, was notably underwhelming and took place months after Sinners went from box-office hit to legitimate contender and at the same time as One Battle After Another skipped festivals and went on to win best picture. The pipeline that had once birthed winners such as Birdman, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave and The King’s Speech had no longer played as big of a part with Covid-affected Nomadland being the last fall festival film to win the top prize. Even without an awards hat on, there has been a more general lack of buzz, an excitement of something new that much harder to find as more films of considerably lower quality took up underserved space. If the trades are to be believed, a lot of it is down to studios choosing against the risk of bad buzz and potential embarrassment to A-listers because for every The Shape of Water or Poor Things, there’s a White Noise or Joker: Folie à Deux. So while this season might see new films starring Tom Cruise, Timothée Chalamet, Anne Hathaway, Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Ben Affleck and Mikey Madison, none of them are braving a festival premiere.

As Oscar nominations were being announced back in January of this year, the next crop of contenders started revealing themselves over in Park City where Utah hosted its final Sundance film festival. The biggest story was the return and reinvention of Olivia Wilde, who was the best part of Gregg Araki’s comedy I Want Your Sex and finally announced herself as a serious director with chamber comedy The Invite, a remake of the Spanish film The People Upstairs. It was the buzziest title of the festival and after a rapturous premiere, a heated auction led to A24 buying the rights and a summer release scored solid box office and sustained word of mouth. It didn’t automatically seem like an obvious Academy pick even if it might have been viewed as such years prior – a talky, human comedy about sex and relationships without much of a recent precedent – but it slowly seemed like a surer thing. Wilde could become the first woman ever to receive nominations for acting and directing while, as it stands, it seems like A24’s strongest contender.

There was also support for John Turturro’s turn in simple, old-fashioned crime drama The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, a film that was purchased by Sony Pictures Classics, an Oscar campaign clearly in mind. Turturro has yet to receive an Oscar nomination and with a rare every-scene performance here, he could sneak into the best actor five.

The festival’s big prize isn’t usually a predictor of Oscar success (recent winners have included Clemency, Atropia, Nanny and In the Summers), yet films such as Coda, Minari and Whiplash have managed to use this early win as the start of fruitful Oscar campaign. This year’s winner was Josephine, an acclaimed drama starring Channing Tatum that seemed like one of the bigger breakouts. But its uncomfortable subject matter – an eight-year-old girl spirals after witnessing a graphic sexual assault – made it a difficult watch for some (there were walkouts) and an even more difficult purchase for buyers, ultimately going to a small and untested new company called Sumerian Pictures. Tatum gives arguably his greatest performance yet (I would hand him the best supporting actor Oscar now if I could) and the film is thoughtfully made by writer-director Beth de Araújo, but it’s a steeper hill to climb due to its backers and content and it might have to unfairly settle for some critics circle prizes.

The Berlin film festival hasn’t tended to produce many Academy-friendly movies over the years (Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon, Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years, four wins for The Grand Budapest Hotel) but with more doors open for international films at the Oscars, it’s become more present in the race. This year most eyes were on Sandra Hüller and her gender-switching turn in black-and-white drama Rose, which could find her on the outskirts of the best actress race. It helps that she’s also in three other acclaimed films of the year, one of which premiered soon after the festival finished …

No one was quite sure what to expect of March’s sci-fi adventure Project Hail Mary, with star Ryan Gosling proving to be an unreliable box-office draw and directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller having not made a live-action film since 2014’s 22 Jump Street. But the film was a considerable win, both critically and commercially, and many believe it could follow in the footsteps of The Martian, also from author Andy Weir, a film that nabbed seven Oscar nominations. Amazon doesn’t have the best track record with the Academy but since the Academy seems to be once again favouring blockbuster fare (if F1 could get in …) this could easily become one of the final 10.

Next came Cannes and a notable lack of many American movies, with most studios and stars choosing not to make the journey over. James Gray’s Paper Tiger, starring Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, was well-received but like his other similarly well-received films, such as Armageddon Time and The Lost City of Z, it might not be to the Academy’s tastes (he has yet to score a single nomination). The biggest American breakout was Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid, a fairly conventional comedy about a gay man dealing with a son he didn’t know about, which scored strong reviews and interest from buyers, leading to an A24 pickup. It’s continued to play well at fall festivals but could be another beloved smaller indie from the company that appeals more to critic circles than the Academy (see also: Sorry Baby, Uncut Gems, The Souvenir and I Saw the TV Glow). The buzziest breakouts came from outside the US – from Spain to Japan to Romania.

The Palme d’Or winner was Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, a divisive culture wars drama starring Oscar nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve. It was picked up by Neon, a company that knows a thing a two about turning this into Oscar success (they have previously secured noms and wins for previous Palme d’Or picks Anora, It Was Just an Accident, Parasite, Anatomy of a Fall and Triangle of Sadness). But Fjord has its fair share of hurdles (it went down poorly at Toronto, some have accused it of being too rightwing and Mungiu previously saw his last Palme d’Or honoree – 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days – snubbed by the Academy). A far safer bet would be the ambitious Spanish epic La Bola Negra, which tells the story of interconnected gay men across three different timelines. It had a 20-minute standing ovation and was snapped up for the US by Netflix, who are giving it an unusually generous theatrical window later this year. It also features a cameo from Penélope Cruz, having quite the year with this and an Oscar-tipped supporting turn in The Invite. Elsewhere, there were thumbs up (and some wavering) for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s care home drama All of a Sudden that might not have the support that pushed his breakout Drive My Car to Oscar glory, but its star Virginie Efira could find her way into the best actress category. She’ll face competition from another performance by Hüller, who turned up again in her second black-and-white drama of the year, this time in Paweł Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, a 1940s-set father-daughter tale.

Back in the US, an unlikely contender took shape at the start of the summer season. At last year’s Toronto film festival, micro-budget horror Obsession turned midnight madness screams into a $15m purchase by Focus Features, 20 times what it was made for. It became a smash hit in May, breaking multiple box-office records and energising gen Z audiences – and while none of this immediately screams Oscars, the ongoing acclaim for breakout star Inde Navarrette caused many to ask, well why not? The Academy’s slow appreciation for horror – with The Substance and Weapons recently breaking through – shows that the genre has finally scared voters into submission and with Focus behind it, who know a thing or two about FYC campaigns, it seems like at least Navarrette is in the race, with the film itself possibly joining her. A more traditional challenger came soon after, Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey, which also became a box-office titan and, like previous best picture-winning Oppenheimer, it appealed to critics as much as it did with audiences. It’s by far the strongest across-the-board option we have at this stage with likely acting noms for Hathaway and Matt Damon as well as a range of craft nods. Even though Nolan did win director and picture so recently, it’s hard to see who can stop him from doing it again at this moment.

It was then time for the fall festivals with Venice emerging, a little light on the bigger titles many had expected. It kicked off with Danny Boyle’s tabloid tale Ink, which received decent notices but not quite decent enough for the film to be deemed a major player, with Netflix unlikely to prioritise it over La Bola Negra and a more substantial Venice breakout, Lee Chang-dong’s Possible Love. Lee’s last film, Burning, might not have made the cut (it was, however, the first Korean film to make it to the final nine-film shortlist) but rapturous reviews for his latest, along with timely themes of class and power as well as the might of Netflix behind it, could turn it into one of the year’s best international feature nominees.

The major English language success story came from Martin McDonagh, who has previously used the festival as a springboard for Oscar nominations or wins for films such as Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin. His latest, Wild Horse Nine, might not have quite the same amount of universal acclaim but it’s hard not to see it picking up multiple nominations. Its most likely win would be for John Malkovich, who has two nods under his belt but is yet to take an Oscar home. There was also the world premiere of Primetime, the thriller that sees Robert Pattinson play To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, but it felt more curio than contender, the only real thing anyone could agree on being the surprisingly effective supporting performance from Skyler Gisondo, who could factor into the race.

The Golden Lion, again not always a predictor of Oscar success (winners have included Father Mother Sister Brother, Roma, The Room Next Door and Nomadland), was awarded to Woman Unknown, a well-regarded Danish thriller that will likely be an international feature competitor but might not break into other major categories.

Next was Telluride with a more stacked lineup than Venice, led by two films that might well feature the season’s two lead acting winners. First was Elsinore, a drama starring Andrew Scott as the Chariots of Fire actor Ian Charleson as he plays Hamlet while dealing with the devastation of the Aids crisis. While some were sniffier about what was perceived as “Oscarbait” storytelling, virtually all agreed that Scott had acted his way to the front of the pack for best actor. Notably the film did go down well enough at Toronto to win the people’s choice award for international film, suggesting it may also receive some other high-profile nods. Meanwhile the best actress race found itself suddenly led by Julianne Moore for her all-in performance in Jesse Eisenberg’s offbeat theatre comedy The Debut. While it’s unusual for a turn quite so wildly comedic and devoid of much recognisable humanity to win (Emma Stone in Poor Things might be a recent example but that character did have some pathos), Moore is beloved by the Academy (one win and another four nominations) and while A Real Pain wasn’t embraced by the Academy as much as some expected (a win for Kieran Culkin and just one other nod), the film’s focus on acting will appeal to a lot of voters.

The long weekend also saw the premiere of Tender Loving Care, what might well be Mike Leigh’s final film. It’s another humane, textured and universally adored comedy drama about the lives of recognisably real people and while critics circles will likely shower it, the Academy hasn’t gravitated towards his films for a while. Hard Truths was snubbed, Another Year had just one nod for screenplay (and criminally nothing for Lesley Manville), Peterloo received no noms, while his only winning film is Topsy-Turvy and that was for below-the-line craft. What might lift this one slightly for voters is both the fact that Leigh said it could likely be his swan song and the presence of Kate O’Flynn, still riding high after her Emmys triumph for Apple’s hit horror comedy Widow’s Bay. She may well see herself in the supporting actress category. Elsewhere, Carrie Coon impressed in cult drama The Liberation but the film had mixed notices. There was also a last-minute surprise screening of You Can See Everything, Nathan Fielder’s unconventional, almost three-hour Elizabeth Holmes documentary, which some are claiming could be an unlikely best picture nominee, though this would be a first in the category. A documentary nod seems more likely, although that branch has mostly favoured international films of late.

Toronto came next with a lineup stacked with films but of a noticeably lower wattage than what once was. On the ground, it was mostly repeats of films that had premiered elsewhere that received the most attention, with The Debut, Elsinore and La Bola Negra in particular getting a substantial boost, the first foreign language winner of the people’s choice award since 2011. Of the festival’s world premieres, the biggest hit seemed to be Peter Farrelly’s making-of drama I Play Rocky, which had a standing ovation and was the runner-up for people’s choice. Farrelly previously saw his crowd-pleasing comedy Green Book go from Toronto hit to best picture winner, and while his Stallone biopic might not feel quite as primed with fewer social issues in its corner, its ability to energise audiences could see it land a nomination at the least. There were a number of failed best actress bids from Cynthia Erivo with a mostly loathed adaptation of award-winning play Prima Facie, Sarah Paulson with buzz-free dame v dame drama Closing Night and Naomi Watts with misfiring Nazi thriller The Housewife, none of which have found a US buyer as yet. Far more convincing was British Slow Horses star Rosalind Eleazar, who rose above Chris Rock’s otherwise patchy Hollywood saga Misty Green to impress with a turn that could see her sneak in, especially given how weak that category is this year.

This week sees the kick-off of the New York film festival with more world premieres than usual. Andrew Garfield will be hoping his Sam Altman impression in OpenAI saga Artificial is good enough to reintroduce director Luca Guadagnino into the Academy’s good books, Tom McCarthy will be aiming to repeat his Spotlight glory with talky, 80s-set climate change drama A Statement, and Tony Gilroy’s music drama Behemoth! will try to launch Pedro Pascal as a late best actor challenger. Outside of festivals, two-time best director winner Alejandro González Iñárritu is dragging Tom Cruise out of his comfort zone in the darkly comedic satire Digger (which some are suggesting will be bigger for supporting actor John Goodman than its lead) the week before Aaron Sorkin tries to copy The Social Network’s success with follow-up The Social Reckoning led by best actress winner Mikey Madison. Soon we’ll also see one-time Oscar mainstay David O Russell return with the sports biopic Madden, starring Oscar winners Nicolas Cage and Christian Bale, his first film since 2022’s disastrous Amsterdam; Robert Eggers following Nosferatu, which surprised with four nominations, with another gothic horror called Werwulf; and the return of Dune, a franchise that has so far won eight Oscars, with the third and “final” chapter. Could we have a best picture-winning Return of the King on our hands?