Greek tourism faces a whole new level of uncertainty created by the ongoing conflict in Iran and beyond, though experts agree that how damaging it will or will not be to the upcoming season depends on its duration, severity and scope.
For the time being, the industry’s immediate attention remains focused on developments like the issuance of travel advisories by major markets from which Greece draws visitors. It is also on the possibility of popular Greek destinations – especially Crete, due to the presence of the US base at Souda – being directly affected, something that could affect the country’s image as a safe travel destination.
Nevertheless, confidence is buoyed by the successful management of recent crises – most notably the Covid pandemic – which is working in Greece’s favor.
Some circles are cautiously optimistic thanks to this sense of geopolitical stability and safety, while others argue that – under some circumstances, at least – Greece may even stand to gain by attracting visitors who had been considering other destinations (such as Dubai, Egypt or Turkey) that are facing immediate challenges from the war.
After a record-breaking year in 2025, Greek tourism has demonstrated its structural resilience. However, in order to be fully safeguarded against future crises, deep reforms are required in vital areas such as infrastructure, spatial planning, energy autonomy and optimal destination management.
Kathimerini reached out to three top tourism figures to get their reading on the current state of affairs and ask where we go from here.
A strong advantage
Andreas Andreadis, CEO & co-managing partner of Sani/Ikos Group
It is risky to make any assumptions given that the war in Iran is in full swing, but I will nevertheless attempt to analyze the implications of what I consider the most likely scenario, based both on statements by US President Donald Trump and Israel, as well as on several analysts’ views.
Based on this scenario, the military operations will be more or less concluded within four to six weeks, after which efforts will be made to come to some kind of an understanding with whichever regime emerges in Iran – something that is extremely uncertain. Regardless of whether this materializes or of a civil conflict or other internal developments, it is unlikely that Iran will continue launching drone and missile attacks against neighboring countries beyond that period. So, I will make an initial assessment of the consequences on tourism in Greece on the basis of this scenario.
First and foremost, we need calm and clarity of mind. The government has, admittedly, acted with exceptional reflexes and made the right moves in this crisis, in a manner comparable to its handling of the [February 2020 migration] crisis in Evros. This gives us a significant advantage as our country is regarded as safe and has a strong image in the eyes of the Europeans and the Americans. I believe that the country’s status and security profile may be better than ever. So, as far as tourism and its prospects are concerned, we need to adopt a business-as-usual attitude, rather than acting out of fear and shooting ourselves in the foot.
At the same time, a significant share of our competitors in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, even under the positive scenario, will undoubtedly see cancellations and a notable drop in demand in the coming months. This will unfold in two stages: first in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Egypt, and then in Turkey and, unfortunately, Cyprus. It is, therefore, reasonable to assume that European Union countries in the Mediterranean (with the exception of Cyprus) stand to benefit, starting with Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, and then Greece and smaller destinations like Croatia.
What do we need to do? The state, local administrations and the broader tourism sector – workers and business owners alike – must put their best foot forward, offering exceptional services at reasonable prices, hence encouraging demand and landing the cancellations from some of our competitors. Visitors who might not have chosen our country under different circumstances present us with an opportunity to win them over.
Needless to say, no one wishes for such dramatic developments, nor can anyone take satisfaction in the tragedy unfolding in Iran or in the difficulties faced by our competitors. Nevertheless, there is an opportunity in the current situation, not only for another positive year in 2026, but also for the years to come. We must seize it.
Resilience against crises
Yannis Hatzis, president of the Hellenic Hotel Federation
The conflict in Iran is still in its early stages, so any assessment must be reserved. Any form of geopolitical tension in the Middle East inevitably affects the global sense of security, operating costs and traveler sentiment. At the same time, however, it has painful consequences for civilians, who always pay the heaviest toll. The current military dimension is not the only critical factor, but also the possibility of escalation or the involvement of additional regional powers. That is where the true scale of the consequences will ultimately be determined.
As an Eastern Mediterranean country, Greece is very close to these ongoing developments compared to other parts of Europe, without being part of the conflict directly. And every crisis has an impact on the economy and on society. That said, the recent experience with Ukraine serves as a reminder that, beyond the terrible toll on human life and international inflationary pressures, conflict also disrupts supply chains and increases uncertainty in the markets.
Ukraine is closer to Greece than Iran, in terms of kilometers. In such a globalized context, however, proximity is not measured only geographically, but also in terms of economic and geopolitical interdependence, especially when a conflict takes on the characteristics of a war by proxy, where the consequences extend far beyond the physical borders of the countries involved.
Despite the challenges, Greek tourism has consistently demonstrated significant resilience in the face of external crises, and in some cases has even emerged stronger from them. After periods of intense uncertainty – such as the financial crisis last decade, the pandemic and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine – the sector managed to recover, largely through the adaptability of businesses, the diversification of target markets and maintaining the country’s enduring international appeal. Greece’s geopolitical stability and its role in European and international institutions remain key factors of confidence for visitors and investors alike. However, this resilience cannot be taken for granted.
Reforms are key to survival
Yiannis Retsos, CEO of Electra Hotels, board chairman of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE)
The sirens and bombs in the broader Middle East have been sounding louder and more violently than they have in many years. A new Yalta-style arrangement may be in the making, as the United States and Israel seek to overturn Iran’s hardline theocratic regime. At the same time, most Gulf countries under aerial attack are not responding and regional powers such as Turkey and Pakistan are looking the other way, while Russia and China maintain a deafening silence. Europe appears uneasy and divided, once again failing to demonstrate resolve, strength and a coordinated response.
Greece has so far demonstrated maturity and resolve, rushing to help Cyprus with tangible support and to have a presence in the defense of Europe’s eastern borders. None of this, of course, lessens the impact of this geopolitical turmoil on our economy. The scale and nature of these consequences will depend on the duration of the war. If it ends soon – in two or three weeks – the effects could be contained. The sharp rise in energy costs would gradually ease, markets – having already priced in and absorbed the impact on company valuations – would begin to recover, and sectors particularly vulnerable under such conditions, such as tourism and transport, would have time to rebound and recoup losses. If, however, the conflict evolves into a medium- to long-term confrontation, we would be facing an entirely different situation – one that is difficult to analyze at this stage.
The disruptions in tourism are within the scope of the expected, so far. The Israelis are at war and are disappearing from Athens and Thessaloniki, the Cypriots are putting their plans to travel abroad on hold, most flights to Arab countries have been temporarily suspended and markets are asking about the situation in Greece. All of these are things that can be fixed, and fast, on the condition that the war ends soon. In addition, the US market – which is especially important to us – is showing understandable concern, but the relatively short booking window, of less than two months, allows room for optimism.
I spoke about the approaching storm at an IOBE presentation just a few weeks ago, underscoring the need to persevere with reforms to protect the economy as much as possible. I’m obviously not some kind of clairvoyant, but I have understood for some time now that the “carefree” days are over. The country has made enormous strides in the past few years; it is fiscally robust, is growing at a faster rate than the rest of Europe and has managed to contain unemployment. But more needs to be done, because the crises will keep on coming and they will be tough.
Greece’s geopolitical and economic clout can be reinforced with more investments. And, in order to increase investments from the current 17% to the European average of 22%, decisive reforms are needed in justice, environmental policy and infrastructure, along with stronger legal certainty, effective spatial planning and energy autonomy. These are no longer aspirations. They are goals that are essential for survival in increasingly turbulent times.
