NBG warns that Greece’s tourism model is approaching a critical stress test as competition intensifies and infrastructure gaps persist.
After a decade of record-setting growth, Greek tourism is entering a more demanding phase in which sustaining performance will depend less on rising demand and more on how effectively the country manages structural pressures, according to a new analysis by the National Bank of Greece (NBG).
International arrivals are expected to exceed 37 million in 2025 (not counting cruise arrivals), up around 5 percent compared to 2024, underscoring the sector’s continued momentum (Chart 1). But the bank’s Business Trends: Tourism Q4 2025 report argues that this success is now testing the limits of Greece’s prevailing tourism model as competition across the Mediterranean intensifies.
An inflection point for Greek tourism
NBG places the sector at a critical inflection point. While demand remains strong, long-standing structural issues are becoming more visible, particularly geographic concentration and infrastructure constraints. Nearly half of all arrivals continue to be absorbed by the islands, despite them accounting for only about 15 percent of Greece’s land area, increasing pressure on saturated destinations.
At the same time, investment patterns are becoming increasingly unbalanced. Over the past five years, tourism-related investment has risen around 14 percent above pre-crisis levels, while investment in core infrastructure remains roughly 8 percent below them (Chart 1). The report frames this gap as a key test of Greece’s ability to convert high volumes into sustainable economic value.
Chart 1: Key structural indicators of Greek tourism (in clockwise order): (a) Investment trends (2000–2009 = 100) – Tourism investment rose above pre-crisis levels, peaking at 114 in 2010–2019, while core infrastructure investment lagged, dropping to 67 in 2020–2024 and recovering only partially to 92. (b) International arrivals structure (million arrivals, excluding cruise tourism) – Total arrivals increased from 31.3 million in 2019 to 37.7 million in 2025, with non-European markets expanding their share from 11% to 14%. (c) Seasonality of arrivals – The high-demand period accounted for 50% of annual arrivals in Greece in 2025, compared with 40% in the Northern Mediterranean, indicating persistent seasonality. (d) Greece’s market share in the Northern Mediterranean Greece’s share of regional arrivals rose from 10.9% in 2019 to 11.4% in 2025, supported mainly by non-European demand. Source: Bank of Greece with data from UN Tourism Data Dashboard
A more competitive Mediterranean landscape
These constraints are emerging as the Mediterranean tourism map becomes more competitive. In the northern Mediterranean (Chart 2), Turkey and Albania have recorded substantial gains in regional market share over the past decade. In the south, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco have re-emerged dynamically, benefiting from competitive pricing, lower saturation and improved geopolitical stability.
By contrast, more mature destinations – including Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom – have collectively lost ground (Chart 2), reflecting the natural limits of earlier tourism development models. Greece has outperformed many of these peers, but the analysis cautions that the regional environment is now less forgiving than during the expansionary years of the past decade.
How Greece captured market share
Between 2016 and 2025, Greece added roughly 13 million international visitors, excluding cruise tourism.
NBG estimates that about 40 percent of this increase reflects the overall expansion of the global tourism market, while another 20 percent stems from a broader shift in international demand toward Europe and the Mediterranean. Crucially, the remaining 40 percent represents a net market share gain for Greece itself.
The country’s share of global tourist arrivals rose to about 2.5 percent in 2025 from 2.0 percent in 2016, placing it among the top five destinations in its wider regional market in terms of market share gains over the past decade (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Changes in global market share of international tourist arrivals by country (2016–2025, excluding cruise tourism). Turkey, Egypt, Albania, Portugal and Greece are among the top gainers in global tourism market share over the period, alongside destinations such as Asia, Tunisia and Morocco (left). By contrast, mature European markets including Italy, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Austria, France, Poland, Bulgaria and Spain recorded market share losses (right). Greece’s share of global arrivals increased from around 2.0% in 2016 to about 2.5% in 2025, placing it among the five strongest regional performers. Source: Bank of Greece with data from UN Tourism Data Dashboard
The growth was supported by structural improvements such as stronger air connectivity and continued upgrades in hotel quality, with higher-category accommodation accounting for a growing share of available beds.
Seasonality and long-haul demand remain decisive
Looking ahead, NBG identifies long-haul travel as a key driver of future growth, with travelers from distant markets expected to account for roughly one quarter of new demand in the wider region. Strengthening air links with mature markets such as the United States, alongside emerging markets like China and India, is seen as increasingly important.
Seasonality, however, remains a central challenge (Chart 1). While tourist flows are becoming more evenly distributed throughout the year, the summer period still accounts for around 50 percent of annual arrivals, down from 53 percent five years ago but well above the Mediterranean average of 40 percent. The report views progress as “gradual and structurally important”, aligning with policy efforts to position Greece as a year-round destination, but far from complete.
Overall, the analysis concludes that Greece’s next phase of tourism growth will depend less on volume expansion and more on coordinated policy choices that address infrastructure gaps, geographic imbalances and intensifying competition in a more mature regional market.
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