Greece is currently one of the most aging countries in Europe and, according to OECD projections, it is expected to become the most elderly country on the continent by 2050.
According to OECD’s recent report “Health at a Glance: Europe 2024,” by 2050 more than 35 percent of the Greek population will be over 65, posing a severe threat to the economy, the labor force, and the societal cohesion of the nation.
Most other Mediterranean nations follow Greece, including Portugal, Italy and Spain.
The problem is acute not just in Greece and the Mediterranean countries. The OECD report says that Europe overall is facing a profound demographic shift, with the proportion of people over age 65 in the EU projected to rise from 21 percent in 2023 to 29 percent by 2050.
The post-World War II baby boom observed in many European countries has also contributed to an increasing proportion of people over age 65 during the past decade and will continue to increase the proportion in the coming years as this cohort reaches that age group.
The report says that populations are aging because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth in the EU has increased by over four years between 2000 and 2023, from 77.3 years in 2000 to 81.5 years in 2023.
While there was a sharp reduction in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic (with a reduction in life expectancy by more than a year between 2019 and 2021), it started to bounce back in 2022.
In 2023 it was at about the same level as before the pandemic in most EU countries, even reaching a slightly higher level than before the pandemic in some countries.
Aging in Greece and demographic trends
As of January 1, 2023, Greece’s population fell to 10,413,982, a 0.5 percent drop from 2022. The figure comprises 5,090,591 men and 5,323,391 women. Natural decrease accounted for a loss of 64,000 people. This includes 75,921 births and 139,921 deaths in Greece.
The population is segmented by age. Those aged zero to fourteen years old account for 13.4 percent of the total population, while those between the ages of fifteen and sixty-four comprise 63.7 percent of the population. People who are sixty-five and older constitute 22.9 percent of the populace.
At 1.3, Greece’s fertility rate is among the continent’s lowest and well below the 2.5 needed for population growth. Economic forecasts indicate its workforce is set to fall by 50 percent by 2100, with its output shrinking by 31 percent over the same period.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has called the country’s demographic crisis a drain on pensions and “a national threat.”
The prime minister emphasized that there are no magic solutions or options that can bring immediate results.
He noted that demography implies a long-term and often uneven effort and, “of course, it requires many allies, from the state and businesses to the citizens themselves because they too obviously participate in the developments as carriers of specific perceptions and behaviors.”
In October the family ministry in Greece announced it plans to spend 20 billion euros ($22 billion) through 2035 on incentives to halt the decline of the population, including cash benefits and tax breaks.
